Roofing Market Intelligence
Roofing Market Intelligence
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Exclusive, Pre-Qualified Roofing Appointments & Revenue Operations for Growth-Focused Contractors.
CBSA 38060, AZ · 2 member counties · Prepared 2026-08-09
Key figures at a glance
- Residential roof base
- 1,460,688 roofs
- Estimated annual roofing opportunities
- 58,428
- Estimated annual market value
- $788.8M ($394.4M to $1.39B)
- Estimated monthly opportunity
- 4,869 average, 8,277 in storm season
- Modelled qualified appointment supply
- 2,337 per year, about 195 per month at a 4% capture assumption
Contents
- 01Market At-a-Glance
- 02Roofing Demand Overview
- 03Historical Roofing Demand Drivers
- 04Roof Replacement Drivers
- 05Roof Replacement Opportunity and Total Addressable Market
- 06Lead Generation Opportunity
- 07Insurance vs Retail Opportunity
- 08Contractor Economics
- 09Market Competition and Saturation
- 10Market Verdict
- 11Verified Data Foundation
- 12Sources and provenance
- 13Assumptions and methodology
Section 01
Market At-a-Glance
The verified government picture of this market in one screen. Every figure in this section is retrieved data or a direct calculation from retrieved data. Nothing here is modelled.
| Metric | Value | Type | Period and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 5,028,754 | Verified | Census ACS |
| Households | 1,892,613 | Verified | Census ACS |
| Residential Housing Units | 2,068,985 | Verified | Census ACS |
| Single-Family Homes Formula: single_family_detached_units + single_family_attached_units | 1,460,688 | Derived | Census ACS |
| Owner-Occupied Homes | 1,260,206 | Verified | Census ACS |
| Homeownership Rate Formula: owner_occupied_units / (owner_occupied_units + renter_occupied_units) | 66.6% | Derived | Census ACS |
| Median Home Value | $440,900 | Verified | Census ACS |
| Median Household Income | $88,301 | Verified | Census ACS |
| Median Year Structure Built | 1994 | Verified | Census ACS |
| Housing Built Before 1980 | 565,557 (27.3%) | Verified | Census ACS |
| Recorded Hail Events, 10 Years | unavailable | Verified | 2016 to 2025 NOAA NCEI |
| Recorded Wind Events, 10 Years | unavailable | Verified | 2016 to 2025 NOAA NCEI |
| Recorded Tornado Events, 10 Years | unavailable | Verified | 2016 to 2025 NOAA NCEI |
| FEMA Hail Risk Score | 98.02 | Verified | FEMA NRI |
| FEMA Strong Wind Risk Score | 96.99 | Verified | FEMA NRI |
| FEMA Tornado Risk Score | 79.89 | Verified | FEMA NRI |
Housing age is structure age, not roof age. Recorded storm events are activity indicators, not damage confirmations, claims or roof replacements.
Section 02
Roofing Demand Overview
The roofing read on this market. Classifications follow stated rules applied to verified government data. They are analysis, not measurements.
| Metric | Value | Type | Period and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Roofing Demand Level Rule: Very High when single-family units exceed 1,500,000 and hail averages 100 or more events per year; High above 500,000 units and 50 hail events; Medium above 150,000 units or 20 hail events; otherwise Low. Applied to 1,460,688 single-family units and unavailable recorded hail events per year. | Medium | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Demand Type Derived from the labelled insurance versus retail split rule in Section 6. | Hybrid, weather and insurance led | Assumption | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Primary Demand Drivers Ranked in Section 3 from recorded storm activity, FEMA risk scores and the pre-1980 share of housing (27.3%). | Hail, aging housing stock, strong wind | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Seasonal Demand Pattern Monthly storm timing is not stored in the data foundation, only annual counts. The seasonal shape is an explicit assumption, quantified in Section 5. | Spring storm season peak, winter trough | Assumption | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Market Competition / Saturation Contractor counts and capacity are not in the data foundation. No proxy was substituted and no saturation figure was estimated. Required input metric is unavailable. | Unavailable | Verified | Not reported |
Why this market receives this classification
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ carries 1,460,688 single-family housing units, 70.6% of all housing, with an owner-occupied share of 66.6%. Recorded severe weather over the frozen ten-year window is unavailable hail events, unavailable wind events and unavailable tornado events, and FEMA rates hail risk at 98.02 and strong wind at 96.99. A large owner-occupied single-family base is what makes residential roofing work exist at volume; recurring hail is what pulls that work forward and brings insurance into the transaction. The classification reflects those two conditions together. It does not measure how many roofs are due today, how many claims are open or how much contractor capacity already serves the market.
Competition and saturation cannot be measured from the data foundation. Roofing contractor counts, crew capacity and market share are not published by any connected government source.
Section 03
Historical Roofing Demand Drivers
Ten years of recorded storm activity and the housing and price trends that sit behind roofing demand. Recorded storm events are activity indicators. They are not roof replacements.
| Metric | Value | Type | Period and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Hail Events Per Year Formula: hail_events_10yr / 10 years | unavailable | Derived | NOAA NCEI |
| Average Wind Events Per Year Formula: wind_events_10yr / 10 years | unavailable | Derived | NOAA NCEI |
| Average Tornado Events Per Year Formula: tornado_events_10yr / 10 years | unavailable | Derived | NOAA NCEI |
| FHFA House Price Change, 5 Years | 48.1% | Verified | FHFA |
| Housing Units Built Before 1980 | 565,557 | Verified | Census ACS |
Storm activity trend
Annual storm detail is not stored for this market.
Housing age trend
The median structure was built in 1994 and 565,557 units, 27.3% of the stock, predate 1980. That segment ages into replacement work continuously and independently of weather, which is the part of roofing demand that does not disappear in a quiet storm year. Housing age is not roof age. No dataset in this report reports roof age.
Home price trend
The FHFA house price index for the metro stands at 519.93, 2.4% year over year and 48.1% over five years. Rising home equity supports retail funded roof replacement; flat year over year movement tightens homeowner willingness to fund discretionary work out of pocket.
Storm event counts come from the NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database for the counties in this metro, deduplicated and restricted to the event types authorized by the metric dictionary.
Section 04
Roof Replacement Drivers
The reasons roofs are likely to be replaced in this market, ranked against the verified data.
Replacement drivers, ranked
| Rank | Driver | Supporting verified data | Demand type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hail | unavailable recorded hail events 2016 to 2025 (unavailable per year), FEMA hail risk score 98.02, FEMA expected annual hail building loss $24,988,173 | Insurance driven |
| 2 | Aging housing stock | 565,557 units built before 1980 (27.3% of stock), median year built 1994 | Retail driven |
| 3 | Strong wind | unavailable recorded wind events, FEMA strong wind risk score 96.99, expected annual strong wind building loss $5,623,015 | Insurance and retail |
| 4 | Tornado | unavailable recorded tornado events, FEMA tornado risk score 79.89, expected annual tornado building loss $3,048,701 | Insurance driven, low frequency and high severity |
| 5 | Hurricane | FEMA hurricane risk score 25.90 | Not a material inland driver in this market |
Ranking is analysis performed on the verified figures shown in the same row. It is not a published ranking.
Insurance driven demand
Hail and wind events transfer the cost of replacement to a carrier when damage is confirmed and a claim is approved. With unavailable recorded hail events per year, this market produces recurring claim eligible damage. What the data cannot show is how many claims were filed, approved or paid, because no connected government source publishes claim activity.
Retail and homeowner funded demand
Replacement driven by roof age is funded by the homeowner. Median home value is $440,900 against median household income of $88,301, and homeownership stands at 66.6%. Those conditions support out of pocket and financed replacement in the owner-occupied base.
Roof life assumption
Where roof age and material are unavailable, the analysis assumes an effective asphalt shingle service life of 25 years in the base case, 33 years in the conservative case and 20 years in the aggressive case, reflecting accelerated wear in a high hail market. Assumption, not measured data.
Roofing material mix is not published for this market by any connected source, so material is discussed only where the regional assumption is stated as an assumption.
Section 05
Roof Replacement Opportunity and Total Addressable Market
The residential roof base, the annual and monthly replacement opportunity and the dollar TAM. Because no federal dataset publishes roof age or roof replacements, the annual opportunity is modelled from an assumed replacement cycle. Every modelled figure shows source, assumption, calculation and result.
| Metric | Value | Type | Period and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Housing Units | 2,068,985 | Verified | Census ACS |
| Single-Family Detached Units | 1,351,075 | Verified | Census ACS |
| Single-Family Attached Units | 109,613 | Verified | Census ACS |
| Estimated Residential Roof Base Formula: single_family_detached_units + single_family_attached_units, at one roof per unit Upper bound for single-family roofs. Shared-roof townhome rows are counted once per unit. | 1,460,688 | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Annual Roof Replacement Opportunities, Base Formula: roof base x 4% annual replacement rate Replacement rate is an explicit market assumption implying a 25 year effective roof life. | 58,428 | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Annual Opportunities, Conservative Formula: roof base x 3% annual replacement rate Implies a 33 year effective roof life. | 43,821 | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Annual Opportunities, Aggressive Formula: roof base x 5% annual replacement rate Implies a 20 year effective roof life. | 73,034 | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Annual Roofing Market Value, Base Formula: base opportunities x $13,500 average job value Both inputs are labelled assumptions. The figure is a market size estimate, not revenue. | $788.8M | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Annual Roofing Market Value, Low Formula: conservative opportunities x $9,000 average job value Lower bound of the assumption range. | $394.4M | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Annual Roofing Market Value, High Formula: aggressive opportunities x $19,000 average job value Upper bound of the assumption range. | $1.39B | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
Dollar TAM scenarios
| Scenario | Replacement rate | Annual opportunities | Average job value | Annual market value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 3% | 43,821 | $9,000 | $394.4M |
| Base | 4% | 58,428 | $13,500 | $788.8M |
| High | 5% | 73,034 | $19,000 | $1.39B |
Replacement rate and average job value are market assumptions. The roof base is derived from verified Census ACS counts.
This is a market sizing exercise, not a forecast, a pipeline or a guarantee of available work. Multifamily, mobile and commercial structures are excluded from the residential roof base.
Section 06
Lead Generation Opportunity
The market opportunity translated into bookable, qualified appointment volume, then into sales-team scenarios. Not every roofing opportunity becomes an appointment, so a stated capture assumption is applied.
| Metric | Value | Type | Period and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Annual Opportunities Formula: roof base x 4% Base case from Section 4. | 58,428 | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Average Monthly Opportunities Formula: annual opportunities / 12 Even distribution. | 4,869 | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Low-Season Monthly Opportunities Formula: monthly average x 0.55 Seasonal multiplier is an assumption. | 2,678 | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Normal-Season Monthly Opportunities Formula: monthly average x 1 Seasonal multiplier is an assumption. | 4,869 | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| High-Season Monthly Opportunities Formula: monthly average x 1.7 Seasonal multiplier is an assumption. | 8,277 | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Potential Qualified Appointments Per Year, Base Formula: annual opportunities x 4% appointment capture rate Capture rate is an operating assumption. It is not a measured conversion rate for this market. | 2,337 | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Potential Qualified Appointments Per Month, Base Formula: annual appointments / 12 Even distribution. Storm season concentrates real volume. | 195 | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Appointment Range, Low to High Formula: annual opportunities x 2% and x 6% Capture rate range. | 1,169 to 3,506 per year | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
Sales team scenarios against the modelled appointment supply
| Sales team | Appointments needed per month | Appointments needed per year | Share of modelled monthly appointment supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 sales rep | 30 | 360 | 15.4% |
| 2 sales reps | 60 | 720 | 30.8% |
| 3 sales reps | 90 | 1,080 | 46.2% |
Each representative is modelled at 30 run appointments per month. A share well under 100% means the market can feed the team on these assumptions; it does not measure how much appointment supply competitors already consume.
Monthly figures redistribute the annual base case. They do not add demand. Seasonal multipliers are an explicit assumption because monthly storm timing is not stored in the data foundation.
Appointment volume is modelled, not booked work. It describes how much qualified appointment supply this market could support, not appointments currently available for purchase.
Section 07
Insurance vs Retail Opportunity
How the annual opportunity is likely to split between claim funded and homeowner funded work. The split is an explicit assumption applied by a stated rule.
| Metric | Value | Type | Period and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Insurance-Driven Opportunity Formula: annual opportunities x 65% Split rule stated in the assumptions table. | 37,978 | Assumption | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Estimated Retail-Driven Opportunity Formula: annual opportunities x 35% Split rule stated in the assumptions table. | 20,450 | Assumption | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Insurance Share Applied from recorded hail frequency and FEMA hail risk score. | 65% | Assumption | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Retail Share Remainder of the split. | 35% | Assumption | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
Insurance demand logic
Recorded hail activity of unavailable events per year and a FEMA hail risk score of 98.02 put this market in the band where a majority of replacement work is likely to run through a claim. Claim funded work concentrates in the months after a significant hail or wind event and can compress a year of demand into a quarter.
Retail demand logic
Age driven replacement continues regardless of weather. 565,557 pre-1980 units (27.3% of stock) and an owner-occupied share of 66.6% support a steady homeowner funded segment, backed by median home value of $440,900 and median household income of $88,301.
Insurance claim counts, approval rates and severity are not published by any connected government source. No claim data was used or implied.
Section 08
Contractor Economics
Modelled contractor scenarios for a single-representative sales operation running pre-booked appointments in this market, plus the kind of customer the market produces. These are scenario models, not actual contractor results.
| Metric | Value | Type | Period and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Annual Opportunities Formula: roof base x 4% Base case. | 58,428 | Derived | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Assumed Average Job Value Full residential asphalt shingle replacement, base case. | $13,500 | Assumption | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Annual Market Value, Base Formula: annual opportunities x average job value Base case. | $788.8M | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Estimated Monthly Market Value Formula: annual market value / 12 Even distribution. | $65.7M | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Annual Market Value, Low Formula: conservative scenario Lower bound. | $394.4M | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Annual Market Value, High Formula: aggressive scenario Upper bound. | $1.39B | Estimated | PreBooked Roofing Leads analysis |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.9% | Verified | BLS |
| Construction Employment Not published for this metro and industry code in the LAUMT and SM series used by the pipeline. No other industry was substituted. Required input metric is unavailable. | Unavailable | Verified | BLS |
Modelled scenarios, one sales representative
| Case | Appointments per month | Close rate | Sold jobs per month | Average job value | Monthly gross revenue | Annualised gross revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 20 | 25% | 5.0 | $9,000 | $45,000 | $540,000 |
| Base | 30 | 33% | 9.9 | $13,500 | $133,650 | $1.6M |
| High | 40 | 40% | 16.0 | $19,000 | $304,000 | $3.6M |
Appointment volume, close rate and average job value are all stated assumptions. Gross revenue is before material, labour, overhead and appointment cost. These figures are modelled scenarios, not results achieved by any contractor.
Implications for a roofing lead generation company
At the base case the market carries roughly 58,428 potential residential replacement opportunities a year, about 4,869 a month on an even distribution and closer to 8,277 in the storm season. A three representative sales organisation can work about 180 opportunities a month, which is 3.7% of the average monthly market. A market only supports purchased appointments when opportunity volume exceeds what contractors can generate and work themselves, and where the sales model can absorb a seasonal surge. On these figures the volume is present. What these numbers cannot tell you is how much of it is already captured by existing contractors, because contractor counts and capacity are not published.
What kind of customer this market produces
The likely customer is an owner-occupier of a single-family house, 66.6% of households own, in a home valued around $440,900 on a household income near $88,301. With an assumed 65% of replacement work claim funded, most conversations start after a hail or wind event and turn on documentation, carrier process and timelines rather than price alone. The remaining 35% is age driven and funded by the homeowner, where financing, roof condition and value at resale carry the decision. Both groups need a decision maker on the call, which is why owner-occupancy matters more here than raw housing volume.
Every dollar figure below depends on the labelled assumptions. None of it is contractor revenue, booked work or a forecast.
Section 09
Market Competition and Saturation
What the data foundation can and cannot say about how contested this market already is.
| Metric | Value | Type | Period and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roofing Contractor Count Not published for this market by any connected government source. Required input metric is unavailable. | Unavailable | Verified | Not reported |
| Roofing Crew or Production Capacity Not published by any connected government source. Required input metric is unavailable. | Unavailable | Verified | Not reported |
| Market Saturation Score No defensible input exists in the data foundation, so no score was produced. Required input metric is unavailable. | Unavailable | Verified | Not reported |
| Advertising Cost or Lead Price Benchmarks Not a government dataset. Not modelled in this report. Required input metric is unavailable. | Unavailable | Verified | Not reported |
How to read the absence of competition data
Every opportunity and dollar figure in this report describes total market demand. None of it is net of the work existing contractors already capture. Competition must be assessed outside this report, by direct market checks such as contractor density, advertising presence and appointment cost. Substituting construction employment or general business counts for roofing competition would produce a number that looks precise and means nothing, so no such figure appears here.
No competition score was calculated and no contractor count was estimated. Unrelated employment data was not substituted as a competition proxy.
Section 10
Market Verdict
The practical roofing-market conclusion. Everything above this section is the reasoning behind it.
Market at a glance
| Item | Reading |
|---|---|
| Market | Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ |
| Residential roof base | 1,460,688 roofs |
| Estimated annual roofing opportunities | 58,428 |
| Estimated annual market value | $788.8M ($394.4M to $1.39B) |
| Estimated monthly opportunity | 4,869 average, 8,277 in storm season |
| Modelled qualified appointment supply | 2,337 per year, about 195 per month at a 4% capture assumption |
| Competition and saturation | Unavailable, no government source publishes roofing contractor counts or capacity |
| Primary demand driver | Hail, unavailable recorded events per year |
| Secondary demand driver | Aging housing stock, 27.3% of units built before 1980 |
| Market type | Medium demand, hybrid, weather and insurance led |
| Data quality and confidence | Moderate to high. 13 of 16 roofing inputs available (81%). Dollar figures depend on labelled assumptions. |
Roof base and opportunity counts are derived from verified Census ACS housing counts. Replacement rate, job value and seasonal shape are labelled market assumptions.
Is Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ a strong roofing market?
Yes on the verified data, at a medium demand classification. The market holds 1,460,688 single-family units with an owner-occupied share of 66.6%, and it recorded unavailable hail, unavailable wind and unavailable tornado events between 2016 and 2025. Size and recurring hail exposure are both present.
What creates the demand
Hail first, aging housing stock second, strong wind third. 565,557 units predate 1980 and the median structure was built in 1994, which sustains age driven work between storm cycles.
How large is the opportunity
An estimated residential roof base of 1,460,688 roofs, roughly 58,428 annual replacement opportunities in the base case, an estimated annual market value of $788.8M with a range of $394.4M to $1.39B, and about 4,869 opportunities a month on average. Demand is hybrid, weather and insurance led, split at an assumed 65% insurance and 35% retail.
Risks and limitations
The roof base, replacement rate, job value, seasonal shape, sales capacity and insurance split are assumptions, not measurements, and the dollar figures move directly with them. Roof age, roof material, permits, insurance claims and contractor competition are not published by any connected government source, so the report cannot say how much of this market is already served, how many roofs are actually due, or how many claims are being paid. Recorded storm events are activity indicators, not damage confirmations and not roof replacements.
Section 11
Verified Data Foundation
Every government value used by the analysis above, with its period, source, dataset and formula where a figure was computed. Nothing in this section is estimated or assumed.
| Metric | Value | Type | Period and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 5,028,754 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Households | 1,892,613 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Housing Units | 2,068,985 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Single-Family Housing Units Formula: single_family_detached_units + single_family_attached_units | 1,460,688 | Derived | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates |
| Single-Family Detached | 1,351,075 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Single-Family Attached | 109,613 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Owner-Occupied Units | 1,260,206 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Renter-Occupied Units | 632,407 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Vacant Housing Units | 176,372 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Single-Family % of Housing Formula: (single_family_detached_units + single_family_attached_units) / total_housing_units x 100 | 70.6% | Derived | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates |
| Owner-Occupied % Formula: owner_occupied_units / (owner_occupied_units + renter_occupied_units) x 100 | 66.6% | Derived | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates |
| Housing Vacancy Rate Formula: vacant_housing_units / total_housing_units x 100 | 8.5% | Derived | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates |
| Median Year Structure Built | 1994 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Housing Units Built Before 1980 | 565,557 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| % of Housing Units Built Before 1980 Formula: housing_units_built_pre_1980 / total_housing_units x 100 | 27.3% | Derived | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates |
| FEMA Composite Risk Score | 99.34 | Verified | NRI March 2023 (Counties) FEMA, National Risk Index - County (NRI 2023 (March 2023 release)) |
| FEMA Hail Risk Score | 98.02 | Verified | NRI March 2023 (Counties) FEMA, National Risk Index - County (NRI 2023 (March 2023 release)) |
| FEMA Tornado Risk Score | 79.89 | Verified | NRI March 2023 (Counties) FEMA, National Risk Index - County (NRI 2023 (March 2023 release)) |
| FEMA Strong Wind Risk Score | 96.99 | Verified | NRI March 2023 (Counties) FEMA, National Risk Index - County (NRI 2023 (March 2023 release)) |
| FEMA Hurricane Risk Score | 25.90 | Verified | NRI March 2023 (Counties) FEMA, National Risk Index - County (NRI 2023 (March 2023 release)) |
| FEMA Social Vulnerability Score | 28.56 | Verified | NRI March 2023 (Counties) FEMA, National Risk Index - County (NRI 2023 (March 2023 release)) |
| FEMA Expected Annual Hail Building Loss | $24,988,173 | Verified | NRI March 2023 (Counties) FEMA, National Risk Index - County (NRI 2023 (March 2023 release)) |
| FEMA Expected Annual Tornado Building Loss | $3,048,701 | Verified | NRI March 2023 (Counties) FEMA, National Risk Index - County (NRI 2023 (March 2023 release)) |
| FEMA Expected Annual Strong Wind Building Loss | $5,623,015 | Verified | NRI March 2023 (Counties) FEMA, National Risk Index - County (NRI 2023 (March 2023 release)) |
| Hail Events, 10 Years This metric is not present in the data foundation for this market. | Unavailable | Verified | Not reported |
| Wind Events, 10 Years This metric is not present in the data foundation for this market. | Unavailable | Verified | Not reported |
| Tornado Events, 10 Years This metric is not present in the data foundation for this market. | Unavailable | Verified | Not reported |
| Average Hail Events Per Year Formula: hail_events_10yr / 10 years (frozen window 2016-01-01 to 2025-12-31) One or more input metrics are unavailable, so this figure was not computed. No value was estimated. | Unavailable | Derived | Not reported |
| Average Wind Events Per Year Formula: wind_events_10yr / 10 years (frozen window 2016-01-01 to 2025-12-31) One or more input metrics are unavailable, so this figure was not computed. No value was estimated. | Unavailable | Derived | Not reported |
| Average Tornado Events Per Year Formula: tornado_events_10yr / 10 years (frozen window 2016-01-01 to 2025-12-31) One or more input metrics are unavailable, so this figure was not computed. No value was estimated. | Unavailable | Derived | Not reported |
| Median Home Value | $440,900 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Median Household Income | $88,301 | Verified | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) |
| Home Value / Household Income Formula: median_home_value / median_household_income | 4.99 | Derived | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates |
| FHFA House Price Index | 519.93 | Verified | 2026Q1 FHFA, House Price Index - Metropolitan Areas (NSA) (HPI master quarterly, current release) |
| FHFA YoY Change | 2.4% | Verified | 2026Q1 FHFA, House Price Index - Metropolitan Areas (NSA) (HPI master quarterly, current release) |
| FHFA 5-Year Change | 48.1% | Verified | 2026Q1 FHFA, House Price Index - Metropolitan Areas (NSA) (HPI master quarterly, current release) |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.9% | Verified | 2026-06 BLS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (metropolitan areas) (LAUS metropolitan area series, not seasonally adjusted) |
Values retrieved at different times keep their own period and retrieval information. Housing age is a roofing-market indicator, not roof age. Recorded storm events are not claims, damage confirmations or roof replacements.
Section 12
Sources and provenance
| Agency | Dataset | Period | Retrieved | Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Emergency Management Agency | National Risk Index - County (NRI 2023 (March 2023 release)) | NRI March 2023 (Counties) | 2026-08-09 | 9 |
| Federal Housing Finance Agency | House Price Index - Metropolitan Areas (NSA) (HPI master quarterly, current release) | 2026Q1 | 2026-08-09 | 3 |
| U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | State and Area Employment, Hours and Earnings (SAE metropolitan area series, not seasonally adjusted) | 2026-06 | 2026-08-09 | 1 |
| U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Local Area Unemployment Statistics (metropolitan areas) (LAUS metropolitan area series, not seasonally adjusted) | 2026-06 | 2026-08-09 | 1 |
| U.S. Census Bureau | American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024)) | ACS 5-Year Estimates 2024 (2020-2024) | 2026-08-09 | 12 |
Methodology and provenance
Each figure traces to the agency, dataset edition, variable or series, geography and retrieval time recorded on its canonical metric row. Metrics were retrieved at different times and each keeps its own period and retrieval timestamp; nothing here implies a single simultaneous pull. Where a value is unavailable it is shown as Unavailable with the reason recorded by the pipeline.
Geography
Maricopa County (04013), Pinal County (04021)
Snapshot lineage
v1 failed (25 metrics)
Section 13
Assumptions and methodology
Verified data is retrieved from official sources. Derived metrics are calculated from verified data and show their formula. Market assumptions are industry inputs used where no government metric exists. Estimated values combine the two.
| Assumption | Value used | Basis | Used in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential roofs per housing unit | 1 roof per single-family detached unit, 1 roof per single-family attached unit | No dataset counts roofs. Detached houses have one roof each. Attached units are counted at one roof each, which overstates shared-roof townhome rows, so the roof base is an upper bound for single-family stock. Multifamily and mobile units are excluded from the residential roof base. | Section 4, Residential Roof Base |
| Annual roof replacement rate | 3% low, 4% base, 5% high | Implied roof service life of 33, 25 and 20 years for asphalt shingle roofs in a high hail exposure market. No government source publishes a replacement rate. The rate is applied to the estimated roof base, not to total housing units. | Sections 4, 5, 6 and 7 |
| Average residential roof replacement value | $9,000 low, $13,500 base, $19,000 high | Full residential asphalt shingle replacement ticket range. No government source publishes roofing job value. Repairs and partial work are not modelled. | Sections 4 and 7 |
| Seasonal distribution | Low season 0.55x, normal 1x, high season 1.7x of the monthly average | Roofing demand in hail exposed markets concentrates in and after the spring storm season. The multipliers describe shape only. The annual total is unchanged. | Section 5 |
| Sales representative capacity | 60 opportunities worked per representative per month | Three worked opportunities per selling day across roughly twenty selling days. This is capacity to work opportunities, not a promise of appointments, sales or revenue. | Section 6, Lead Generation Opportunity |
| Appointment capture rate | 2% low, 4% base, 6% high of annual replacement opportunities | Not every roofing opportunity becomes a booked appointment. Most homeowners are not in market on any given contact, cannot be reached, or are already working with a contractor. The capture rate is the share of the modelled annual opportunity pool that a disciplined outbound and inbound programme can qualify and book. It is an operating assumption, not a measured conversion rate for this market. | Section 6, Lead Generation Opportunity |
| Appointments per representative per month | 30 run appointments | Roughly one and a half run appointments per selling day allowing for drive time, inspection and follow up. Capacity only, not a booking guarantee. | Sections 6 and 8 |
| Appointment to sold job close rate | 25% low, 33% base, 40% high | Modelled close rate on qualified, pre-booked residential roofing appointments. No government or industry source publishes close rates for this market. These are scenario inputs, not observed contractor results. | Section 8, Contractor Economics |
| Insurance versus retail split | 65% insurance driven, 35% retail driven | Rule applied to verified data: 65/35 when average recorded hail events exceed 100 per year or the FEMA hail risk score is 90 or above, 50/50 when hail events exceed 40 per year, otherwise 35/65. This market recorded unavailable hail events per year with a FEMA hail risk score of 98.02. Actual claim counts are not published by any connected source. | Section 6 |
No government value in this report was estimated or substituted from an unrelated dataset. Where an assumption was required for a roofing calculation it is labelled above and in the figure itself.